Life by the numbers 

#4: Probability

02:00 start 
03:40 keeping score
	media
	baseball
	small S statistics
06:55 big S statistics - drawing conclusions
	baseball manager
08:20 history -- Wm the conqueror collets data
	no real analysis of data
	Doomsday Book
10:00 John Graunt
	estimate size of London (based on data from Doomsday book)
	he estimated under 400,000 rather than 2 million
12:10 baseball decision sac bunt
16:00 house rules
	casinos
17:25 math of games & gambling
18:45 Pascal & Fermat
	dividing pot of interrupted game
22:00 casinos have slight edge
23:40 Galton board simulation
26:10 16 billion profit @ casinos
26:30 P & F never apply to other areas
27:00 estiating public opinion
	prof who actually does it
30:10 "a small rep group will acurately reflect the opinions of a 
	larger society, if the participants are chosen @ random."
		trying to say something like get a good sampling fram
		and then sample randomly
30:30 sampling soup
32:00 sampling frame must be correct (doesn't use term)
	Literary Digest
34:10 El Paso mayoral election
36:00 assess value of results
	medical results - new drugs
37:20 polio vaccine
	1916-50's polio epidemics
39:10 testing vaccine
	large randomized experiment
41:30 probability to assess results
42:25 modern clinical trials
	(not needed)
44:00 risky business - insurance
46:00 wedding insurance
	gathering data
	$15-20K per wedding
53:00 wrap-up
	shorterm uncertainty
	longterm patterns
	applications mentioned again
55:00 done