Center for Social Research

Correlates of Congregational Growth, 2000-2005:  Vitality, Purpose, Drums, and Irreverent Joy

What has distinguished growing American congregations from their stagnant and dwindling cousins? Some tentative answers are found in a new report from Faith Communities Today:  a growing, youthful demographic setting, a multiethnic constituency, a “vital,” contemporary worship style, and a purposeful organizational disposition to grow and change. Drums and “joyful” worship often went with growth; worship described as “reverent,” unfortunately, did not often accompany numeric growth in weekly attendance (see pages 9 and 10 of the report).

Whether these recent trends are worthy of emulation is a theological and social matter the current report does not address directly. But scholars and laypeople of all stripes may find evidence to inform their perspectives. The report, covering many faiths and denominations, is based on nationwide data collected in 2005 by the Calvin College Center for Social Research.

About the data
The Faith Communities Today (FACT) research team has issued its first extended report on the 2005 FACT survey data. Authored by Kirk Hadaway of the Episcopal Church, the FACTs on Growth report notes the leading correlates (not necessarily causes!) of reported numeric growth in average attendance from 2000 to 2005.

The Center for Social Research participated in survey instrument design, implemented the design in print and on the web, built an online database of congregational contacts, collected survey data, and prepared the data for analysis, including collating and merging U.S. Census and Department of Education statistics into the data.

The complexity of joy, excitement, and reverence

Figure 15 from page 9 of the report

Nestled in the report is an interesting nugget that should help nuance congregations’ responses to the study’s findings. What makes a congregation grow may depend heavily on how well its growth strategy fits its constituency; the correlates do not represent a prescription for growth, let alone a “one-size-fits-all” prescription. For example, author Hadaway notes on page 9 that congregations reporting “joyful” worship were significantly more likely to grow (see figure snapshot above), while the adjective “exciting” correlated with growth only for evangelical denominations and not for mainline congregations. “[E]xciting worship may seem to foreign or perhaps too evangelical” to mainline congregations, Hadaway writes. This kind of nuance might also explain the apparently negative association of “reverent” worship with growth found on page 10; though less reverent congregations were about twice as likely to grow as congregations reporting very reverent worship, thirty-one percent of very reverent congregations did grow. The culture of reverence may be a minority culture today, but it can still be associated with growth in many congregations.

Multivariate model identifies internal conflict as number-one growth killer

Figure 13 from page 8 of the report

Hadaway reports that reverence remained a strong negative correlate of growth in multivariate models (see page 16), even after “controlling” for other factors such as location, faith tradition and initial size. But the number one growth-killer was the presence of internal conflict. He notes that numerous denomination-wide conflicts over sexuality issues probably portend continued decline in mainline congregations. The conflict issue raises a potential research question for future investigation:  is the price of conflict great enough that conflicted denominations should consider policies and programs aimed at amicable separation, as well as the usual reconciliation efforts?

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