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Calvin College professor
Amy Patterson watched President George W. Bush's recent State of the
Union address with more than a passing interest.
As a political
scientist she is, of course, a keen observer of all things political.
But Patterson's primary research interest is AIDS and Africa, a topic
that was a significant part of President Bush's speech.
In fact, Patterson
had just completed, on the day of the speech, a three-week Interim course
at Calvin on the politics of AIDS in Africa. And so she listened to
Bush's words with careful attention.
Patterson said
she was pleased the President used such a public forum to announce his
AIDS initiative. And she especially liked the fact that the President
acknowledged the need for drug treatment for the millions of Africans
currently living with the disease. She did wonder, however, about parts
of the President's plan.
She notes that
while the Bush pledge of $15 billion over five years is a large increase
over current U.S. spending, it may not be enough. "Estimates are,"
she says, "that it will take $7 to $10 billion annually to fight
off the global AIDS epidemic. Further, this funding would need to be
sustained for several years."
However, she adds,
by the President making such a proposal and Congress allocating the
money, there is some hope that this will also encourage other wealthy
industrial nations to give more. "Certainly some of them,"
she says, "have taken a 'wait and see what Washington does' attitude
on funding."
Another area of
uncertainty in the African AIDS crisis, says Patterson, is how exactly
to allocate money.
"Should it
be used for prevention," she says, "and if so, what does that
entail? Does it mean only abstinence programs or also condom distribution?
How much money is for treatment programs with the antiretrovirals (ARVs)
that the President mentioned."
Patterson says
that such treatment often can include providing ARVs to pregnant HIV-positive
women so that they reduce the risk of transmitting the virus to the
baby during pregnancy or labor. Because they are used for a shorter
course of treatment, these "mother-to-child transmission"
ARVs are cheaper than ARVs for HIV-positive adults and have been an
easier political sell for policy makers.
Another question,
says Patterson, is whether the administration will allow money to be
spent on generic versions of ARVs, which are much cheaper than brand-name
drugs.
"Although
the administration has come out in support of generics in health emergencies
such as the AIDS epidemic," says Patterson, "I think that
this might become a point of political debate in the U.S. Congress,
especially since protecting intellectual property is a key aspect of
U.S. trade concerns."
Patterson says
most AIDS experts, public health officials and African leaders today
argue that money must be used for both prevention -- including abstinence
education, condom distribution, workplace and school education programs
and peer counseling among sex workers -- and treatment with ARVs.
She says that
more programs also must be developed to help individuals cope with the
loss of income and labor that occurs when a family loses someone to
AIDS. And that orphan support programs are also needed, especially so
that extended family members have the resources to care for orphans
and these children are not forced to leave home or live on the streets.
While some of these programs do exist, they are not sufficient to meet
growing needs.
The timing of
the President's push to assist Africa includes a number of factors says
Patterson.
One critical issue
is security.
"There is
a growing realization," says Patterson, "that the potential
economic insecurity that the AIDS epidemic will create in many African
countries may lead to greater political instability in Africa. And arenas
of political instability, such as Afghanistan, are ripe for terrorism.
Further, young people without parents, education, jobs, or hope are
easily mobilized by adults such as warlords, terrorist leaders, etc.
There are estimates of 40 million AIDS orphans, one-third of young people
in some African countries, in the near future. So, the AIDS issue has
become more closely tied to security issues. "
Patterson notes
too that the United Nations Secretary General, who is well-liked in
Washington, has made a commitment to discuss this issue and get it on
the international policy-making agenda and that Americans are becoming
more aware of AIDS in Africa, especially Americans in some of Bush's
traditional camps of supporters. Finally, she says, there are some key
individuals in the US Congress who have been pushing for more funding
for AIDS in Africa, including Bill Frist, the new Senate Majority leader.
And politically
AIDS funding might be a positive for Republicans who, after the Trent
Lott dust-up, are looking for ways to improve their image with African-American
voters. It also may help the U.S. image abroad in a time of Iraq crisis
that sees conflicts between the U.S. and some of its important European
allies.
Patterson's African
expertise includes not only book chapters and articles on the continent
and AIDS, but also a two-year stint in Senegal as a member of the Peace
Corps. She also has received a variety of outside funding to study AIDS
and African politics.
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